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Korea Real Estate BubbleThis is the KOSPI chart.Why does it go up when investment from Japan has decreased by 50% and investment from the United States and the EU has decreased?You'd better imagine who's buying stocks.One is Chinese money. This is exactly what the current administration wants.Another is stock investment, which is secured by soaring real estate prices.Another is private investment by ordinary people who cannot buy real estate, even if they borrow money from rising stocks.In other words, it is a bubble.The IMF warned that Korea's household debt is above the danger level.Judging that this is a temporary phenomenon, it is better to stop borrowing money and investing in real estate and stocks to increase assets.
Voting for South Korea's unified local elections was held on June 1st, with the ruling party
Local elections won by the ruling party
Local administration launches anti-Japanese movement
The president is the head of the executive branch
Twisted power runs amok
Efforts to improve relationships are always destroyed
Adopts resolution that violates international commitments
South Korea cannot keep its promises
Voting for South Korea's unified local elections was held on June 1st, with the ruling party "People's Power" winning 12 out of 17 regions, and the "Tomo Democratic Party" winning 4 regions including Jeolla Province and Gyeonggi Province by a narrow margin. It is reported that the ruling party won by a landslide, winning only five regions. This appears to be a trend that will lead to a resolution of the kinks between local government, the president, and the cabinet.
The No Japan movement was largely led by local governments. Gyeonggi Province, Seoul City, and Busan City have passed ordinances stipulating ``war criminal company stickers'' or ``restrictions on the purchase of war criminal company products.'' This is a surprising ordinance that places stickers on the products of Japanese companies that have been unilaterally labeled as war criminal companies, and restricts the use and purchase of those products in government agencies and schools.
Local governments in South Korea not only decide local leaders, but also exercise a variety of powers, including issuing ordinances that can lead to diplomatic issues between countries.
Regarding the ban on imports from Fukushima Prefecture, fishing organizations in coastal areas such as Busan are putting tremendous pressure on local governments. This is a local economic issue, and we do not want to import Japanese seafood to South Korea. This is to protect Korean fishing organizations. It is clear from the beginning that this is not a scientific problem.
The president assumes the position of head of the executive branch. Since the president is the head of state who is directly elected by the votes of all citizens, he is given great powers, unlike the prime minister in a parliamentary system.
In a parliamentary system, the leader of the parliament with the largest majority is elected prime minister. Therefore, the Prime Minister, the Cabinet, and the Diet, which is the legislative branch, will not be distorted. If anything could be twisted, the House of Representatives and the House of Councilors would be twisted.
In South Korea, the current president is Yun Seok-Yeol, who ran for office based on ``the power of the people,'' and the Democratic Party of Korea holds 58% of the seats in the National Assembly, the legislative body. In other words, even if the president uses his prerogatives, Congress can pass one bill after another to nullify them.
Substantive exchanges between Japan and South Korea began in 1998, when the Japan-Korea Joint Declaration was signed. Until then, Japanese culture, anime, manga, dramas, etc. had been prohibited in South Korea, but this declaration will lift the ban on these. It was also during this period that Korean dramas and K-POP began to flow into Japan.
Also known as the Obuchi-Kim Dae-jung Declaration, it was a declaration that comprehensively resolved the Japan-Korea issue, including the joint hosting of the 2002 FIFA World Cup between Japan and Korea and the conclusion of a new fisheries agreement regarding the Takeshima issue. It will be deactivated immediately thereafter.
On July 18, 2001, the South Korean parliament passed a unanimous resolution calling on the South Korean government to abolish the Japan-Korea Joint Declaration. Then, a large number of Korean fishing boats appeared near Takeshima, and the territorial issue reignited and continues to this day, and the activities of civil society groups on issues such as the forced labor issue and the comfort women issue further expanded. This is despite the fact that the World Cup was co-hosted by Japan and South Korea in 2002.
Will Congress vote to invalidate the president's diplomatic promises with other countries? Such unbelievable things happen in the South Korean National Assembly.
This has hardly been reported in Japan. Japan was united towards the success of the Japan-Korea joint World Cup. And during the match of this tournament, an incident occurs where Korean players criticize the Rising Sun flag and promote Takeshima as Korean territory. The premise behind this was that South Korea was already trying to revoke the 1998 Joint Declaration.
In South Korea, the president's powers will only be effectively exercised if he wins the presidential election and unified local elections, and the ``power of the people'' wins the national election in 2024.
The issue of South Korean ships conducting investigations around Takeshima shortly before and immediately after the presidential inauguration became a problem. In other words, South Korea is not even equipped to keep its promises..
This is especially noticeable in anti-Japanese groups. In South Korea, members of both the ruling and opposition parties are basically anti-Japanese.. Even if the Diet tries to improve relations with Japan as a matter of policy, if its practical interests are endangered, it will easily turn into an anti-Japanese Diet.
In Japan, if things are twisted, things will not be decided, but in Korea, twisted power begins to run amok. It is an uncontrolled rampage that continues even if international agreements are broken.
The exchange won rate has not stopped falling.The No Japan movement is a campaign to buy domestic products.Nothing will change under the chaebol economy.
South Korea's trade dependence on GDP is more than 70 percent, including the service sector.In other words, domestic demand is low and foreign exchange is directly affected.Even if foreign demand is received, it does not circulate at home and flows abroad.If the person who made the purchase contract increases the dollar by 5% at the time of payment, the payment will increase by 5%.The won-dollar exchange rate is 1,200 won, but it has been hovering around 1,200 won in recent days.
In order to maintain international competitiveness, chaebol companies such as SAMSUNG buy parts in bulk and produce them in bulk to reduce costs and sell them at low prices.In this case, large debts are always carried out and large payments are repeated, and problems arise when the value of the currency changes significantly during that period.This is the so-called default.Under these circumstances, the won's international credit rating has not increased, and South Korean companies can trade in dollars depending on the L/C of Japanese commercial banks.
South Korea experienced two foreign exchange crises in 1997 and 2008.No country will experience two foreign exchange crises in 10 years.In other words, South Korea's industrial form is vulnerable, and in short, it is trading beyond its currency capabilities.
Considering what Moon Jae In wants to do, the real intention is to socialize, control the currency, and stabilize the value of the won.Do you think the boycott is a campaign to buy domestic goods if it is reversed?
South Korea is listed by the FRB as a currency manipulator.
The reason why domestic demand is not expanding is the existence of chaebol companies.The role of chaebol companies in driving the Korean economy is important, but on the other hand, investment in chaebol companies is concentrated and other industries are not growing.In addition to the businesses run by chaebol companies, how can Korean companies grow globally?It can only be done with its own money without investment.
This structure will not change even if there is a boycott Japan.As a currency manipulator, even if it leaves the liberal economy, it will not change.It is necessary for the government to take the lead in fostering domestic demand and to attract investment in what industries to foster domestic small and medium-sized enterprises.The boycott Japan does not mean that South Korean domestic companies' sales will increase.
Moon Jae In's term of office is less than three months, and criticism from his country seems to be gathering.I think it's quite late from Japan view.
Moon Jae In wants pictures.Looking at the four years of Moon Jae In, it seems that they think that meeting heads of state and chatting with each other will make the world peaceful.Although the North-U.S. dialogue broke down due to Moon Jae In talked lies, Moon Jae In was just wanted to be photographed on camera, and after joint liaison office between the two Koreas was bombed.In ASEAN suddenly approached former Prime Minister Abe and took a picture they were sitting with Moon Jea In for a few miutes."At the Tokyo Olympics, Japan, South Korea, China and North Korea proposed a four-way summit, but the contents are unclear.When we meet, the world will be at peace.Now it is invalid because North Korea is not participating, but I don't understand why he want to meet the prime ministers.He still seems to think that he can achieve it just leaders meet.
Moon Jae In Cancelled of Visiting JapanPrime Minister Suga's remarks at a press conference: I havsaid I will treat him with diplomatic manner if President Moon will come to Japan.Along with the announcement of the president's postponement, South Korea has expressed its hope for the success of the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics.I would like to keep this in mind.Furthermore, in order to restore Japan-South Korea relations to a healthy relationship, we would like to continue to communicate firmly with South Korea based on Japan's consistent stance."
The first point is to respond politely to visiting Japan (meaning participate in the opening ceremony of the Olympics).It didn't mean a summit meeting.
The second point is to communicate firmly with South Korea based on Japan's consistent position (assuming that Japan does not make concessions).
Whether Moon Jae In had completely misread these two points or pretended not to understand them, they had passed each other from the very beginning.