The Korean won is falling.It exceeded 1,240 won. The reason that Japan must not make promises with the new Korean president prematurely .
2022-03-15
Category:South Korea
Photo by National Missile Defense image (licensed under CC0 1.0 )
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The won's depreciation has not stopped, and there are many uncertainties
The won fell to 1,243 won against the dollar.If the Fed raises interest rates in real terms, it will fall further.The main reason is that Russia's economic prospects are pessimistic. And Yoon Seok-yeol won the presidential election on March 9 and became president on May 10.Yoon called for strengthening the U.S.-South Korea alliance and mentioned the deployment of THAAD.China accounted for 24.8 percent of Korea's exports, twice as much as the U.S., the second largest exporter.When the Park Geun Hye administration decided to deploy THAAD, China imposed severe economic sanctions.China's economic sanctions are only pessimistic for investors, so Korean investment is likely to rise further and the won is likely to fall further.
Next time, South Korea will break its promise with China
The Moon Jae In administration has made a promise with China that it will not be included in the U.S. missile defense system, and that the U.S.-Japan security cooperation will not develop into a military alliance,and that the THAAD, which has already been deployed in South Korea without additional THAAD deployment, will not harm China's security.In other words, economic sanctions will inevitably be imposed if South Korea break their promise to China.The Democratic Party has 58 percent of the seats in the ruling party, and domestic opposition is likely to be strong.If the won depreciates further, there will be more material to attack the president.
It's too early to get excited about improving Japan-South Korea relations
In Japan, it is reported that the president, who wants to improve Japan-South Korea relations, took office, but the environment is not that good.Even if the new president makes a simple promise between Korea and Japan, it is highly likely that Korean public opinion and parliament will not be able to fulfill it.On the contrary, if the won-dollar exchange rate exceeds 1,300 won, it will be out of control and even default again.
POINT All promises made in Japan and South Korea have been broken every time the president changes.The Japanese government should observe it a little calmly without rushing to achieve mere diplomatic results.
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[related article]
South Korean President with 28% Approval Rating - Breaks Promises to China if Seeking Relations with Japan - Country that Breaks Promises to Japan if China [Contents]
South Korea's new president with low approval rating
It's advantageous if you don't make achievements
Anti-Japanese Appeal on the Takeshima Issue
China just waits and sees
Change of government will change things
President Yoon Seok-yeol's approval rating is 28% (according to Gallup Korea survey), and he has been facing a tough fight since he took office. Since the administration began as a lame duck in the first place, there is no change in the situation where the government cannot move unless the power of the people wins the 2024 general election.
Looking ahead to 2024, the Democratic Party of Korea, which is the enemy, will be at a disadvantage if President Yoon produces results and achievements. There is no mistake in going on the offensive of not letting the president do anything.
Although President Yoon Seok-yue has appealed for the improvement of Japan-South Korea relations, he is willing to make concessions on the Takeshima issue, such as by conducting marine surveys around Takeshima. Even at this stage, he is ridiculed as a pro-Japanese president or a betrayal president. In any case, from a Japanese point of view, it can only be seen as a double standard.
As for China, as was the case with Moon Jae-in, it seems that they are just watching the future of this administration.
The deployment of THAAD under the Park Geun-hye administration cooled relations between China and South Korea, but under the Moon Jae-in administration, they exchanged promises with China about the three non-compliances, and the current president has declared that he does not know about the three non-compliances.
Right-wing and left-wing South Korea have a unique structure of pro-U.S./pro-Japan and pro-China conflicts, and they seem to understand well that a change in government can lead to a major change in diplomatic policy.
In the first place, isn't there a question in South Korea about where the national ideology of South Korea, which goes back and forth between liberal democracy and socialist dictatorship, lies? On the contrary, they are constantly intimidatingly questioning each other about meaningless alternatives, whether they are pro-Japanese or anti-Japanese.
South Korea, where anti-Japan precedes the national ideology of democracy or socialism. Any problem can be dwarfed by anti-Japan fire, making it a very easy tool to use politically.
His Majesty the Emperor visited Saipan
In 2005, the Emperor and Empress visited Saipan to pay their respects to the war dead.In response, a protest demonstration was held by a Korean group.It seems to be the idea that the Emperor's memorial service for the war dead is the revival of militarism.
Angered by the movement, Saipan residents shouted, "If Koreans protest against the Emperor, let's boycott Korean companies," and John Blanco urged native Chamoros and Carolina residents to boycott Korean companies if Koreans hold scheduled protests next Tuesday.Nevertheless, the Saipan Korean Association spread out banners and staged a demonstration demanding an apology from the Emperor.
The Japanese probably don't understand the idea that visiting the memorial is the revival of militarism.It was the same for Saipans.
An old Chamorro woman rose to her feet."How rude of the Emperor to come to the memorial service!I won't forgive you!" he exasperated, "You guys get out of Saipan."Don't do anything selfish on our island," he told local residents and the media one after another.As a result, many Chamoros supported the demonstration, and it developed into a huge demonstration to welcome the Emperor.
It was the 60th anniversary of the end of World War II, when the Emperor and Empress visited Saipan with a warm welcome on June 27th and 28th.
Korea justifies anti-Japanese demonstrations regardless of where they are.Saipan residents got angry at this and developed into a welcome demonstration for the Emperor.
Korea Real Estate Bubble This is the KOSPI chart.Why does it go up when investment from Japan has decreased by 50% and investment from the United States and the EU has decreased?You'd better imagine who's buying stocks.One is Chinese money. This is exactly what the current administration wants.Another is stock investment, which is secured by soaring real estate prices.Another is private investment by ordinary people who cannot buy real estate, even if they borrow money from rising stocks.In other words, it is a bubble.The IMF warned that Korea's household debt is above the danger level.Judging that this is a temporary phenomenon, it is better to stop borrowing money and investing in real estate and stocks to increase assets.
Moon Jae In wants pictures. Looking at the four years of Moon Jae In, it seems that they think that meeting heads of state and chatting with each other will make the world peaceful.Although the North-U.S. dialogue broke down due to Moon Jae In talked lies, Moon Jae In was just wanted to be photographed on camera, and after joint liaison office between the two Koreas was bombed.In ASEAN suddenly approached former Prime Minister Abe and took a picture they were sitting with Moon Jea In for a few miutes."At the Tokyo Olympics, Japan, South Korea, China and North Korea proposed a four-way summit, but the contents are unclear.When we meet, the world will be at peace.Now it is invalid because North Korea is not participating, but I don't understand why he want to meet the prime ministers.He still seems to think that he can achieve it just leaders meet.
Moon Jae - in's words regarding Park Geun - hye's pardon are abstract; who is the one who created the division?
[Excerpt from Chosun Ilbo article (translation)]
On the 24th, former President Park Geun-hye expressed her gratitude to President Moon Jae-in for granting him a special pardon.
Lawyer Yoo Yong-ha, a close aide to former President Park, met with reporters in front of Samsung Seoul Hospital in Gangnam-gu, Seoul, where former President Park was hospitalized, and relayed former President Park's words on his behalf.
Regarding former President Park's health condition, attorney Yoo said, ``It looks like she will be receiving treatment at a hospital for the time being,'' but added, ``I cannot comment on the specific health condition right now.''
Regarding former President Park's future plans, lawyer Yoo said, ``Right now, he is concentrating on treating a new disease.He told me that he would not meet with anyone.''
On this day, to celebrate the new year of 2022, the government granted a special pardon to former President Park, who is currently in prison after being found guilty in the National Agricultural Organization Incident.
``We must overcome the pain of last year and move on to a new era,'' President Moon said, ``I hope that this will be the beginning of a new era of unity and harmony that transcends differences and pros and cons.'' .
President Moon said, ``Rather than being buried in the past and fighting each other, it is time for us to boldly work together toward the future.''Especially given the many challenges facing us, we must strive for national unity and humility.'' There is an urgent need for inclusiveness."
[Excerpt above]
Moon Jae-in's words have an abstract meaning: the people will come together as one and create a new era.
It is said that Moon Jae-in himself was the one who created the cause of the nation's division in the first place. The main argument of the opposition parties is that Moon Jae-in became president after taking advantage of Park Geun-hye's impeachment, and that the current left-wing government is the one that carried out various schemes surrounding the impeachment.
There are many people who feel that it is strange that this pardon was decided for the exact same reason as the previous pardon was not granted.
In South Korea, the president is arrested every time there is a change of government. Perhaps because of the culture of grudges, there is a history of retaliation for retaliation.
Many people take this to mean that Moon Jae-in is asking for a pardon and the charges against him to be reduced.
Moon Jae-in's term remains until next year's presidential election. Many people seem to feel uncomfortable about being pardoned at this timing.