Although the United States don't save Ukraine, will the United States save Taiwan?Taiwan's more complicated problem than Ukraine's
2022-03-16
Category:Taiwan
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Where does Taiwan belong
There was a question mark on how the Ukraine issue would affect the Taiwan issue and whether the U.S. would send U.S. troops to defend Taiwan if China advanced to Taiwan.Where does Ukraine belong? Ukraine is an independent country independent of the former Soviet Union in 1991.Is Taiwan independent or where does it belong?Taiwan was incorporated into Japan after the Sino-Japanese War and came under Japanese rule.It existed as Japan for 50 years until the end of World War II.Under the San Francisco Peace Treaty, Taiwan will be returned.It is unclear where it was returned.It only says that Japan renounces Taiwan.After the civil war, the Communist Party of China ruled the mainland and the government of the Republic of China fled to Taiwan.In 1949, the Communist Party of China established the People's Republic of China.This was established as a different government from the Republic of China.Since the San Francisco Peace Conference was held in 1951, the international community has not determined which government is more legitimate at this time, so the two governments have not participated in the peace conference.
Albania Resolution for United Nations Representation
The United Nations has been established as a coalition of victorious countries in World War II.China's representation was held by the Republic of China as a permanent member, but the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China will compete for representation.China's representative government was recognized as the People's Republic of China by the U.N. resolution in 1971, and the Republic of China will withdraw from the U.N.Japan and the United States had diplomatic relations with the Republic of China, but Japan established diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China in 1972 and broke off diplomatic relations with the Republic of China.Since President Nixon's surprise visit to China in 1971, the United States established diplomatic relations with China in 1979 and severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
Who will inherit the Republic of China
China now claims that Taiwan belongs to China because Japan had renounced Taiwan.However, there are many objections whether the U.N. resolution on Albania is interpreted as a matter of representation and determination to belong to Taiwan.If Taiwan was returned to the Republic of China, the Republic of China is Taiwan.Therefore, Taiwan insists that Taiwan is the successor to the Republic of China, while China insists that the People's Republic of China is the successor to the Republic of China.Now that we've come this far, it is hard to find a way at all, but the conclusion is that Ukraine's independence is much simpler.
POINT Japan and the United States ,and the majority of countries do not have diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Contain with Japan and the United States and the majority of countries, the United Nations has ambiguoused Taiwan's attribution for long time.
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[related article]
Mr. Xi Jinping believes that Taiwan's independence is the trigger for his invasion of Taiwan - The timing of Taiwan's independence and the influence of elections in each country.
The term of office of the Chinese president is five years. In 2018, China's National People's Congress lifted the 10-year limit for two terms, making it possible for candidates to be re-elected as many times as they like. Xi Jinping is currently in his second term, and his term ends in 2023. Regarding the timing, if any, of China's invasion of Taiwan, in January 2021, the Chinese Minister of Defense made in-depth statements that Taiwan's independence would mean war. At the recent U.S.-China summit, Xi Jinping said, ``If Taiwan's independence forces cross the line, we will take decisive measures.''
In other words, the timing is Taiwan's independence. So, regardless of what kind of action or state one considers independence, Taiwan satisfies all the substantive requirements for becoming a state under international law. All that remains is to draft a declaration of independence and declare it to the international community as an independent country. The question is at what timing it will be done.
Regarding this, President Tsai Ing-wen has stated that Taiwan is "already independent," indicating that she has no intention of drafting a declaration of independence. Taiwan's 2024 presidential election will be held the year after Xi Jinping begins his third term. The Democratic Progressive Party candidates advocate Taiwan's independence, which means that Taiwan is not yet independent, which is a very different nuance from President Tsai Ing-wen's ``already independent'' statement.
If the Democratic Progressive Party candidate becomes Taiwan's president in 2024, there is a high possibility that he will draft a declaration of independence during his term. Xi Jinping, aiming for a third term, will support the Kuomintang, the opposition force to Taiwan's ruling party, and seek to become Taiwan's president. Obsessed with elections. The Nationalist Party is a pro-China party. 2024 is also the year of the US presidential election. Based on President Tsai Ing-wen's idea that the country is "already independent," it is unlikely that a declaration of independence will be drafted under the Tsai Ing-wen administration or the Biden administration.
Taiwan's presidential election and the US presidential election will begin in 2024, and Xi Jinping's third term will begin in 2023. It will be interesting to see if there is any movement after this time.
Since the term of office of Taiwan's president is four years, the term of office of the next president will expire in 2028, which will be Xi Jinping's fourth term. Xi Jinping will need to see results by at least 2027 to be re-elected to a fourth term. This timing is the 6th year that Commander Davidson said that war would occur within 6 years. If the US Republican Party wins in 2024, the situation will change dramatically.
The timing of Taiwan's declaration of independence may have a great deal to do with the elections in the three countries.
Why did President Tsai Ing - wen invite Kyoto Tachibana High School to the Double Ten Festival? - Taiwan's future entrusted to future generations.
Kyoto Tachibana High School where Taiwan was crazy
Japan's national defense and the Taiwan Strait issue are inseparable
Taiwan's democratization is a recent event
Danger of being swallowed up by China in the next election
Japan should convey the value of democracy
Regarding why Kyoto Tachibana High School's brass band (Orange Devil) was invited to Taiwan's National Foundation Day ceremony, President Tsai Ing-wen looked ahead to the presidential election in 2024 and asked the next generation who will have the right to vote at that time. It appears that Kyoto Tachibana High School was entrusted with a strong message. In the last presidential election in Taiwan, President Tsai Ing-wen came from behind to win despite being at an overwhelming disadvantage. The Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party itself analyzes that the reason for this is that young people are heading to the polls. It is said that the younger generation in Taiwan is starting to develop a sense of democratic values.
Japan should think more seriously about its national defense. There is no objection to considering the Taiwan Strait as an issue that is inseparable from Japan's national defense. What is needed to achieve this is strengthening Japan-US relations and discussing constitutional revision. But is that enough?
Taiwan's democratization began with the direct election of the president in 1996. It was written by former President Lee Teng-hui, who passed away recently. Has Taiwan followed the path of democratization smoothly since then? The first summit meeting between China and Taiwan was held under former President Ma Ying-jeou before President Tsai Ing-wen. There, former President Ma Ying-jeou and Xi Jinping held a meeting, reaffirming the 92 joint formula and returning to the one-China principle. That was in 2015.
Although Taiwan is a young democratic country, it is on the verge of strong growth. If the Democratic Progressive Party loses in the 2024 presidential election, Taiwan, one of the few democratic countries in Asia, may never smile again. Xi Jinping will try to intervene in Taiwan's presidential election in every possible way.
Kyoto Tachibana High School showed that there are many things Japan can do. Our goal is to show young Taiwanese through a variety of content that on the path to democracy there is a world where free people can realize their dreams. Taiwan considers Japan to be its democratic predecessor. The Japanese media, which should be primarily responsible for this, seems to be controlled by China.
Xi Jinping sends a congratulatory message to Taiwan Nationalist Party Chairman Zhu Li-Lun - The purpose of shaking Taiwanese public opinion is the 2024 Taiwan presidential election.
Xi Jinping sent a telegram of congratulations to Mr. Zhu Li-Lun, who took office as the head of the Taiwan Nationalist Party on September 26th, and expressed that both parties share a common political commitment to oppose Taiwan's independence, aiming for peace in the Taiwan Strait, national reunification, and national rejuvenation. He expressed his hope for cooperation on this basis. Mr. Zhu Lilun said that in recent years, under the Democratic Progressive Party government, ``anti-China'' policies were adopted, which led to the deterioration of the situation on both sides of the strait. He responded that he opposed Taiwanese independence and wanted to deepen cooperation while respecting each other's differences. In other words, both sides confirmed that the current Taiwan Strait issue was caused by the Democratic Progressive Party, which denies the ``92 common sense'' and ``one country, two systems.''
Xi Jinping and the Nationalist Party have concluded that the Taiwan Strait issue is an issue caused by President Tsai Ing-wen and the independence faction of the Democratic Progressive Party.
Although the Biden administration's Taiwan Strait policy appears to be a continuation of the Trump administration, it is actually different. Biden, don't cause trouble while he's president. It looks like that's all he's saying. Indo-Pacific Coordinator Campbell's statement that he does not support Taiwan's independence is not the government's official position, but does this mean that even if Taiwan were to declare independence, it would not recognize it? The idea is to maintain three joint communiques.
The three joint communiqués are a compilation of the 1972 dialogue between President Nixon and Prime Minister Chou Enlai.
Let's assume that relations between China and Taiwan proceed peacefully until the next Taiwan presidential election in 2024, as Xi Jinping said. If the Democratic Progressive Party advocates Taiwan independence during the presidential election, the Kuomintang is sure to stir up public opinion by repeatedly attacking them and asking why they are making claims that would lead to war when peace has finally come. Chinese hackers will attack the PCs of Democratic Progressive Party members to sniff out scandals, and they will interfere in elections in every possible way.
Elections are only a process, not a goal. Unless a declaration of independence is drafted, this problem will arise every time Taiwan has a presidential election. The Biden administration in the United States will run until January 2025. What would it mean for Xi Jinping if Trump were to return to office? Xi Jinping has his sights firmly set on Taiwan's 2024 presidential election.
While the Taiwan Strait issue will end with Taiwan's declaration of independence, it is highly likely that it will lead to war.
China's territorial waters violations started in 2012, and what is the cause? - The Senkaku Islands issue became apparent after nationalization. Where did the Senkaku Islands issue begin and where did it emerge? 1971 and 2012.In June 1971, Taiwan's Foreign Ministry claimed sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands.In response, the People's Republic of China claimed sovereignty in September 1971.The assumption began in 1969 when the U.N. ECAFE announced the possibility of oil reserves.At that time, Chiang Kai-shek claimed ownership of mainland China, and China claimed ownership of Taiwan, so it took only three months to declare ownership.
It is said that in 1972 Japan-China normalization of diplomatic relations, there was communication between the two sides that the Senkaku Islands issue would not be a problem if we did not make it a problem.It means the shelved agreement. The graph shows the number of Chinese ships invading territorial waters.It is clear that there will be no trouble for 40 years until September 2012.
In 2010, a Chinese fishing boat collided with a Japanese Coast Guard ship and arrested the captain of a Chinese ship.The captain of the Chinese ship claimed that the Japanese had been hitting his ship, and it turned into a confrontation between Japan and China.The Kan administration of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) released the captain for no reason and it has been criticized by public opinion. Meanwhile, four Japanese have been arrested and detained on suspicion of espionage in China.Tanigaki, then president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), who was the opposition party in questioning the Diet at the time, was needless arresting is incorrect. He pointed out that deportation was sufficient on the spot.
Due to opposition from China and criticism from Japan, the next Noda administration nationalized the Senkaku Islands in September 2012.As a result, the problem spreads and large-scale anti-Japanese riots erupt in China.Then Chinese ships began to invade their territorial waters.In other words, the two countries have claimed sovereignty from the beginning, and if Japan declares nationalization, it will mean abolishing the theory of shelving, and China will claim sovereignty head-on.
As a result, it can be said that the nationalization of the Senkaku Islands was correct in the current Xi Jinping administration.The declaration of nationalization will also lead to Japan-U.S. security.Tanigaki would have been more correct in dealing with a simple case of fishing boat clashes. In any case, the problem originated in Taiwan, but Senkaku Islands connected Japan and Taiwan, making it an important island for Japan-U.S. Taiwan cooperation.
One country, two systems The concept of "one China" is not a matter of independence, but of mainland China's sovereignty.Chiang Kai-shek insisted that the Republic of China was a legitimate government throughout China and refused to persuade Japan and the U.S. to stay at the United Nations by changing their views on China.This will be the beginning of everything.
President Lee Teng-hui first came up with the concept of "special relations between countries" in 1999.During the Chen Shui-bian period, he expressed the two countries were different countries across the Taiwan Strait.During the Ma Ying-jeou era, he said he would maintain the 92 consensus in 1992 (the agreement to recognize a Chinese concept but to recognize each other's difference about interpretations).From here we return to one China.
President Tsai said she did not recognize the 92 agreement. If we do not recognize each other's difference , we will go back to not only rejecting one country, two systems, but also each other's difference, which will be used by China to deny Taiwan sovereignty.
Looking at Taiwan's constitution, it is disturbing.The preamble to the Constitution reads, "Based on the teachings of Dr. Sun Zhongshan, who founded the Republic of China."As can be said in the Korean Constitution, the Constitution is the starting point of domestic law and should not be cited.
I don't know what path Chae will take in the future, but we have to overturn almost all of the previous presidents' interpretations, including constitutional revision.It's a very difficult task, but I want you to accomplish it.