Xi Jinping sends a congratulatory message to Taiwan Nationalist Party Chairman Zhu Li-Lun - The purpose of shaking Taiwanese public opinion is the 2024 Taiwan presidential election.
2021-10-11
Category:Taiwan
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The Chinese Communist Party approaches the Taiwan Nationalist Party
Xi Jinping sent a telegram of congratulations to Mr. Zhu Li-Lun, who took office as the head of the Taiwan Nationalist Party on September 26th, and expressed that both parties share a common political commitment to oppose Taiwan's independence, aiming for peace in the Taiwan Strait, national reunification, and national rejuvenation. He expressed his hope for cooperation on this basis. Mr. Zhu Lilun said that in recent years, under the Democratic Progressive Party government, ``anti-China'' policies were adopted, which led to the deterioration of the situation on both sides of the strait. He responded that he opposed Taiwanese independence and wanted to deepen cooperation while respecting each other's differences. In other words, both sides confirmed that the current Taiwan Strait issue was caused by the Democratic Progressive Party, which denies the ``92 common sense'' and ``one country, two systems.''
MEMO Xi Jinping and the Nationalist Party have concluded that the Taiwan Strait issue is an issue caused by President Tsai Ing-wen and the independence faction of the Democratic Progressive Party.
America's Taiwan policy
Although the Biden administration's Taiwan Strait policy appears to be a continuation of the Trump administration, it is actually different. Biden, don't cause trouble while he's president. It looks like that's all he's saying. Indo-Pacific Coordinator Campbell's statement that he does not support Taiwan's independence is not the government's official position, but does this mean that even if Taiwan were to declare independence, it would not recognize it? The idea is to maintain three joint communiques.
MEMO The three joint communiqués are a compilation of the 1972 dialogue between President Nixon and Prime Minister Chou Enlai.
What does China's change in direction mean?
Let's assume that relations between China and Taiwan proceed peacefully until the next Taiwan presidential election in 2024, as Xi Jinping said. If the Democratic Progressive Party advocates Taiwan independence during the presidential election, the Kuomintang is sure to stir up public opinion by repeatedly attacking them and asking why they are making claims that would lead to war when peace has finally come. Chinese hackers will attack the PCs of Democratic Progressive Party members to sniff out scandals, and they will interfere in elections in every possible way.
Independence theory and one-nation theory held every election
Elections are only a process, not a goal. Unless a declaration of independence is drafted, this problem will arise every time Taiwan has a presidential election. The Biden administration in the United States will run until January 2025. What would it mean for Xi Jinping if Trump were to return to office? Xi Jinping has his sights firmly set on Taiwan's 2024 presidential election.
POINT While the Taiwan Strait issue will end with Taiwan's declaration of independence, it is highly likely that it will lead to war.
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Democratic Progressive Party Lai Qingtoku wins Taiwan presidential election | If pro - China forces win, the Taiwan Strait will become China's property.
With the Democratic Progressive Party's victory, how does President Xi Jinping view the results in China? The result was an overwhelming victory for Taiwan's independence force, the Democratic Progressive Party. Looking at the Taiwanese parliament, the Kuomintang has made a comeback, giving the impression that the Taiwanese people have given orders to the Democratic Progressive Party when it comes to domestic policy. The Kuomintang has 52 seats, the Democratic Party has 51, and the People's Party has 8. The Taiwanese people are no longer pro-China as a national polity, and perhaps because they have doubts about domestic politics, looking at the number of seats, it seems likely that the People's Party will hold the casting board when it comes to legislation.
In the first place, the victory of the pro-independence Democratic Party in the presidential election can be said to be a major achievement. The Taiwanese People's Party was viewed as a force that could divide votes. The Democratic People's Party's position is that it maintains peace through dialogue with both China and the United States, but to be clear, the Taiwan issue is not connected to the US-China conflict, but is rather an issue within the US-China conflict. The reality is that Taiwan exists in China, and on the other hand, I don't think Taiwan can act as a bridge between China and the United States.
Looking at the theme of war from a different perspective, this election was a fight between the Kuomintang and the People's Party to avoid war, and the Democratic Party to protect democracy even in the event of war. This is probably the correct answer. It is said that the decisions of young people will have a large impact on the outcome of this election, just like the last one, and the voting age will be lowered to 18 in 2023. Taking note of this, the Chinese Communist Party has been threatening you, saying that in the event of war, you, the young people, will be the ones who die.
The focus of this election was on what kind of decisions young people would make amidst this intimidation and coaxing. The Democratic Progressive Party's theme was ``choosing between dictatorship and democracy.'' As a result, table splitting fails in the opposite direction. If the theme is war, if you add up the factions that advocated war avoidance, that side will be the majority. Of course, the issue of China was not the only theme in the presidential election, but in the end, the Democratic Progressive Party won, with the votes split among those calling for war avoidance and reconciliation with China.
It goes without saying that Japan would prefer a victory for the Democratic Party. I have nothing but doubts about the Japanese media, which has not shown much interest in the Taiwanese election even though it says that the Taiwanese emergency is a Japanese emergency. A lieutenant general from a Chinese military think tank recently said that the Senkaku Islands are also on the horizon for an invasion of Taiwan, and if the pro-China faction wins the election, China will control the Taiwan Strait, an area through which oil tankers, Japan's lifeline, pass. This is because it suppresses the If that happens, Japan will continue to be threatened by China semi-permanently.
Will Taiwan Become a Key Hole in China's
The Tiananmen Square incident will be remembered as China's democratization movement.Even tanks were deployed to eliminate the movement to democratize students and young people.Next is the Hong Kong demonstration.China has consistently reported this as violent behavior.
The Tiananmen Square incident was suppressed by the Communist Party of China, which feared the pro-democracy movement would spread all over the country.The Hong Kong demonstration was also threatened by the enactment of a national security law and armed intervention from the mainland.In Chinese, the demonstration is called a demonstration parade, and it uses Chinese characters meaning marching while demonstrating its power.If the demonstrations are tolerated and the pro-democracy movement is successful, China will fall apart and disintegrate in the air.
The Hong Kong demonstration has been reported as an incident in which rioters were suppressed in China.If Taiwan becomes independent, the shock in China will be immeasurable.
I think Taiwan and China are different countries, but they are different in China.Taiwan is recognized as part of China.Taiwan's independence means that China's one country, two systems, such as Hong Kong and Macau, will become independent.The impact of this incident on China is expected to be enormous.Considering the impact of Taiwan's independence on other ethnic areas and autonomous regions, the Chinese government is on high alert.Uighur and Tibet are China's resource areas.If foreigners leave China, it will be a serious blow to China's economy.
The Chinese think face is important.If you lose your face, you'll blush and get angry.The territorial issue is a disgrace to China.In response to Chiang Kai-shek's attempt to resolve the Rohgyo Bridge incident peacefully with Japan, Mao Zedong criticized it as a weak stance and advertised it to the people and entered the Sino-Japanese War.In response to Japan's nationalization of the Senkaku Islands, Xi criticized former President Hu Jintao for trying to settle the matter peacefully and withdrew him from his post.For China, the loss of territory or independence is a great loss to the face of the Communist Party government.Xi's obsession with Taiwan is immeasurable.
In addition to Taiwan, China also has areas that sing one country, two systems, including Hong Kong and Macau, and autonomous regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi Chihuang, Tibet, Xinjiang Uighur, and Ningxiahui.
Taiwan Strait seen from the withdrawal of Kyiv - Will Taiwan be able to defend itself? Submarine lurking in the Taiwan Strait. Russia withdraws from Kyiv without taking air superiority
Russia is expected to abandon the capture of Kieu and head for Mariupol and later Odessa. The reason why Kyiv's capture failed is probably that he could not take air superiority. The Army marched on and continued to be bombarded even though it could not take air superiority. It will be China who is watching this battle carefully. Most Chinese weapons are modifications of the former Soviet Union and were obtained from Ukraine. You may be appalled about how well it works with the state-of-the-art weapons of the Western world.
It's even harder to cross the Taiwan Strait
Ukraine is a land-based invasion of neighboring countries, and it is difficult to capture Taiwan because of the Taiwan Strait. Can China take control of Taiwan? Even if they take air superiority, the Chinese army must cross the Taiwan Strait using an amphibious ship to land. The problem is the command of the sea. President Tsai Ing-wen began building his first submarine in Kaohsiung in November 2020. A total of eight ships are planned to be built, and the test voyage is scheduled for 2025. If the submarine is in the Taiwan Strait, the Chinese landing ship will be sunk by an invisible enemy. China has vehemently opposed this plan.
Will Taiwan be able to defend itself?
Before that, if we see the withdrawal of Kyiv, it is more likely that China will not be able to take air superiority. The key is likely to be an unmanned attack aircraft. Although China has an unmanned attack aircraft, its performance is inferior to that made in Russia. With the reinforcement of a large number of unmanned attack aircraft and surface-to-air missiles from the United States, and the purchase of submarines from the United States, it seems that considerable defense is possible just by providing weapons without the participation of the United States. Of note is the performance of the submarines manufactured by Taiwan. Chinese submarines are noisy and are often detected and surfaced from Japan. If you can find it and you can't find it, you can sink your opponent's submarine.Chinese troops cannot land in Taiwan without taking command of the sea.
Mr. Xi Jinping believes that Taiwan's independence is the trigger for his invasion of Taiwan - The timing of Taiwan's independence and the influence of elections in each country.
The term of office of the Chinese president is five years. In 2018, China's National People's Congress lifted the 10-year limit for two terms, making it possible for candidates to be re-elected as many times as they like. Xi Jinping is currently in his second term, and his term ends in 2023. Regarding the timing, if any, of China's invasion of Taiwan, in January 2021, the Chinese Minister of Defense made in-depth statements that Taiwan's independence would mean war. At the recent U.S.-China summit, Xi Jinping said, ``If Taiwan's independence forces cross the line, we will take decisive measures.''
In other words, the timing is Taiwan's independence. So, regardless of what kind of action or state one considers independence, Taiwan satisfies all the substantive requirements for becoming a state under international law. All that remains is to draft a declaration of independence and declare it to the international community as an independent country. The question is at what timing it will be done.
Regarding this, President Tsai Ing-wen has stated that Taiwan is "already independent," indicating that she has no intention of drafting a declaration of independence. Taiwan's 2024 presidential election will be held the year after Xi Jinping begins his third term. The Democratic Progressive Party candidates advocate Taiwan's independence, which means that Taiwan is not yet independent, which is a very different nuance from President Tsai Ing-wen's ``already independent'' statement.
If the Democratic Progressive Party candidate becomes Taiwan's president in 2024, there is a high possibility that he will draft a declaration of independence during his term. Xi Jinping, aiming for a third term, will support the Kuomintang, the opposition force to Taiwan's ruling party, and seek to become Taiwan's president. Obsessed with elections. The Nationalist Party is a pro-China party. 2024 is also the year of the US presidential election. Based on President Tsai Ing-wen's idea that the country is "already independent," it is unlikely that a declaration of independence will be drafted under the Tsai Ing-wen administration or the Biden administration.
Taiwan's presidential election and the US presidential election will begin in 2024, and Xi Jinping's third term will begin in 2023. It will be interesting to see if there is any movement after this time.
Since the term of office of Taiwan's president is four years, the term of office of the next president will expire in 2028, which will be Xi Jinping's fourth term. Xi Jinping will need to see results by at least 2027 to be re-elected to a fourth term. This timing is the 6th year that Commander Davidson said that war would occur within 6 years. If the US Republican Party wins in 2024, the situation will change dramatically.
The timing of Taiwan's declaration of independence may have a great deal to do with the elections in the three countries.
Biased reporting by the media in Taiwan's local elections - Manipulating the impression that the Kuomintang won a landslide victory.
Japan's coverage of the unified local elections in Taiwan is so biased that it's creepy. First of all, various companies are reporting that the Democratic Party has suffered a crushing defeat. Out of the 22 prefectural and mayoral elections, the Democratic Progressive Party went from 7 to 5, the Kuomintang from 14 to 13, the Taiwanese People's Party from 1 to 1, and the independents from 0 to 2.
In other words, while the Democratic Party has reduced its number by two, the number of independent candidates has increased by two, and the Kuomintang's number has remained unchanged. The media has focused a lot of attention on the Taipei and Taoyuan mayoral elections, but the incumbent mayor of Taipei is from the Taiwan People's Party, a third party party, and it is said that Chiang Kai-shek's great-grandson won this election. Taipei is not a Democratic Progressive Party stronghold. In this election, we tried to take advantage of it, but we fell short.
Next, Taoyuan City is interesting. In reality, the Democratic Progressive Party has surrendered its seat to the Kuomintang, but the current mayor is Jeong Wen-san of the Democratic Progressive Party, who is expected to run in the next presidential election. Democratic Progressive Party candidates tried to take over this ground, but were defeated by the Kuomintang Party.
As a result, the Democratic Progressive Party lost two chairs in total, but Tsai Ing-wen's resignation as party leader means that in any case, she will not be able to run in the 2024 presidential election, so it may be a good time for election planning. be. In other words, the next leader of the Democratic Progressive Party is the one to pay attention to.
It appears that they are trying to manipulate the impression that the Kuomintang has won a landslide by taking the symbolic cities of Taipei and Taoyuan.