Public opinion without examining Abenomics - there is no point in criticizing it based on contradictory premises.
2024-01-08
Category:Japan
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Abenomics three arrows
There are some surveys and opinions in public opinion that Abenomics has ruined Japan, but is that true? First of all, what is Abenomics? Were you asking people who answered the same question as in the poll, or were you asking people you didn't know? I wonder if asking someone I don't know will give me the results I expected. First, let's review the three arrows of Abenomics.
Three arrows of Abenomics
Bold monetary policy
Flexible fiscal policy
Growth strategy to stimulate private investment
Monetary policy is still ongoing, but former Prime Minister Abe has said that the consumption tax increase was decided in advance and was carried out at a time when it could not be postponed, so he was unable to fire a second arrow. In other words, Abenomics is actually the first arrow in a variety of environments. In other words, I would understand if there was an evaluation of the fact that it did not advance to the second stage, but I have doubts about evaluating Abenomics itself.
Results are rarely published
Next, I will list some of the achievements of Abenomics.
Main achievements of Abenomics
The total national and local tax revenue will reach a record high of 107 trillion yen in fiscal 2019, up from 78.7 trillion yen in fiscal 2012.
The stock price, which was around 8,000 yen, rose to over 24,000 yen under the Abe administration.
Public pension investment profits increased by 57.6 trillion yen in seven and a half years.
The effective job opening ratio was 83 job openings for every 100 people in 2012, and 164 job openings for every 100 people in 2019.
Business operators improved their treatment due to the labor shortage. The minimum hourly wage rose from 749 yen in 2012 to 901 yen in 2019.
The rate of children from single-parent households going on to university increased significantly from 23.9% to 41.9%.
Sanaenomics three arrows
Sanaenomics (Japanese Economic Resilience Plan) will be published. Representative Sanae Takaichi announced a policy to carry on Abenomics during the last presidential election.
Sanaenomics three arrows
Financial easing
Flexible fiscal stimulus in times of emergency
Bold crisis management investment/growth investment
What they have in common is that monetary easing policy will continue, and if the Takauchi Cabinet is elected, the government will implement aggressive fiscal policy.
The Japanese government had no balance sheet
The fact that the Japanese government's balance sheet was introduced for the first time in 1995 means that the Japanese government did not have the concept of strategic investment, which companies take for granted. How can you invest without a balance sheet or cash flow statement? It was only a matter of being able to compare the income and expenditure for a single year, or the previous year. The term "primary balance" has come to be used like crazy. At that time, Japan believed that deregulation would revive the economy, and the government repeatedly took the approach of relaxing regulations through legal revisions.
Dual structure of industrial transfer and wages
As a result, the Japanese government was unable to rebuild the national economy or make strategic investments for economic growth after the collapse of the bubble, which was an unprecedented economic crisis. More than 30 years have passed since we stubbornly closed the doors. Then, companies moved their manufacturing sectors to emerging countries, and GDP and tax revenues mainly went to neighboring countries such as China, creating a dual wage structure of dispatched labor in order to prevent an increase in the number of unemployed people in Japan. . The economic disparity that arose from this process is said to be one of the causes of the current declining birthrate.
Choosing the next president based on policy
So, has Abenomics ruined Japan? Would that also mean denying Sanaenomics? Or will we continue to turn down investments from the government as we have been doing, paying close attention to the primary balance under the guidance of the Ministry of Finance and listening to the beautiful words of fiscal consolidation? The point of contention should be to gather opinions on whether or not bold fiscal spending by the government is necessary. In any case, regardless of whether the policy is better or not, there are parts where it seems like the point at issue is not policy at all, but just an extension of a personal attack, which is unfortunate.
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The Taiwanese emergency is a Japanese emergency, and it is not clear what the basis is - a basis that assumes various things is necessary.
Taiwan emergency is Japan emergency
Japan confirms security coverage of Senkaku Islands
Taiwan first claims sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands
Sea defenses are extensive
The Taiwan Strait is a sea lane in East Asia
The Chinese government reacted sensitively to former Prime Minister Abe's online participation from Japan at a symposium held in Taiwan, where he said, ``Taiwan's emergency is Japan's emergency.'' Thinking about this matter, Japan and Taiwan do not have a military alliance to defend Taiwan, so it would be difficult to realize it in that sense. The U.S. law regarding Taiwan relations is extremely ambiguous regarding the participation of the U.S. military in the war.
Former Prime Minister Abe was particular about whether the Senkaku Islands were within the scope of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, and received assurances from Mr. Trump, and later in a telephone conversation with President Biden, former Prime Minister Suga confirmed that the Senkaku Islands were covered by the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty.
The Taiwanese emergency is a Japanese emergency that seems to have no basis in many legal and treaty terms, but if you think about it, the Senkaku Islands themselves seem to be the key to it.
In the first place, Taiwan was the first country to claim sovereignty over Japan's Senkaku Islands. Three months later, China claimed the claim. Since China calls Taiwan its own territory, what belongs to Taiwan belongs to China. It seems like he made his point in a hurry.
If China were to invade Taiwan, it would logically be considered an invasion of the Senkaku Islands, which are claimed by China and Taiwan. In other words, the conditions for Japan-U.S. security and the activation of the right of collective self-defense are in place. I cannot believe that former Prime Minister Abe would pay baseless lip service.
Another theory is that defense in battle at sea will cover a wide area, and that Japan's remote islands near Taiwan will also be involved in the battle. In this case as well, the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty applies, and if Japan enters the war, the U.S. military may also participate.
The Taiwan Strait is an important sea route for transporting oil and natural materials to Japan. If China were to take possession of this area, Japan would be in a situation where it would have a stranglehold on the sea route through which it supplies resources. Some are claiming that this is an emergency in Japan.
In any case, China has declared in advance that the Chinese military will not turn the waters off northeastern Taiwan, including the Senkaku Islands and other remote islands of Japan, into a combat zone, and that the Taiwan Strait will be maintained as before after the invasion of Taiwan. The question is, what will happen if this happens? Still, there needs to be a basis for invoking the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty.
Korea is opposed to Sado Kanayama's application for registration as a World Heritage site.Japan have evidence that it was not forced labor.
The Cabinet's decision in April 2021 and the inclusion of warship islands as UNESCO World Heritage sites are posted on the grounds that the recruitment at that time was not a forced labor.Forced Labour Convention in 1930.
When registering as a warship island, South Korea strongly opposes it, and Japan has even proposed a draft of the plan, saying that it will support it if it writes forcedlabor.Japan refused, and at the Japan-South Korea Foreign Ministers' Meeting, South Korea finally agreed to write forcedtowork.The Korean side was particular about the description because it knew that forced labor would be described as forced labor in the Forced Labor Convention at that time.Recruitment is not included in forced labor.It is stated in Article 2-2.The recruitment of the General Mobilization Order falls under paragraph (b).
South Korea opposes Japan's move to apply for the registration of Sado Kanayama as a World Heritage Site, saying it will not allow forced labor to be designated as a World Heritage Site.This is just the same view as it was on Gunkanjima.
C029 - Forced Labour Convention, 1930 (No. 29)
ARTICLE 1
1. Each Member of the International Labour Organisation which ratifies this Convention undertakes to suppress the use of forced or compulsory labour in all its forms within the shortest possible period.
ARTICLE 2
1. For the purposes of this Convention the term forced or compulsory labour shall mean all work or service which is exacted from any person under the menace of any penalty and for which the said person has not offered himself voluntarily.
2. Nevertheless, for the purposes of this Convention, the term forced or compulsory labour shall not include--
(a) any work or service exacted in virtue of compulsory military service laws for work of a purely military character;
(b) any work or service which forms part of the normal civic obligations of the citizens of a fully self-governing country;
(c) any work or service exacted from any person as a consequence of a conviction in a court of law, provided that the said work or service is carried out under the supervision and control of a public authority and that the said person is not hired to or placed at the disposal of private individuals, companies or associations;
(d) any work or service exacted in cases of emergency, that is to say, in the event of war or of a calamity or threatened calamity, such as fire, flood, famine, earthquake, violent epidemic or epizootic diseases, invasion by animal, insect or vegetable pests, and in general any circumstance that would endanger the existence or the well-being of the whole or part of the population;
(e) minor communal services of a kind which, being performed by the members of the community in the direct interest of the said community, can therefore be considered as normal civic obligations incumbent upon the members of the community, provided that the members of the community or their direct representatives shall have the right to be consulted in regard to the need for such services.
The political reform outline of 1989 has become a mere shell - What is Prime Minister Kishida's formulation of
One faction after another announced that they would be disbanded, and Prime Minister Kishida also mentioned the dissolution of the Kochi-kai. Looking at the Political Reform Outline drawn up in 1989, we can see that it does little to address the current party ticket issue. This is an outline adopted by the Liberal Democratic Party in the wake of the Recruit Incident. Prime Minister Kishida has said that he will formulate "new rules," but what is the position of the political reform outline that his own party has drawn up in the past? You can read the full text of the outline by clicking on the link, but here we will describe the table of contents and main points.
Excerpt of the Political Reform Outline
Revising and strengthening the Code of Conduct and the Political Ethics Review Board
Enactment of law to disclose assets of members of the Diet to establish political ethics
Strengthening the ban on donations to ceremonial occasions, etc.
Regulations on business card advertisements, New Year's cards, etc.
Strengthening regulations on posters, etc.
Reducing personnel and office costs
Stock trading regulations
Restraint of parties and new regulations
Concentration of donations to political parties and support for member activities
Expansion of public aid to members of the Diet and examination of political party laws focusing on state subsidies
Fundamental reform of the electoral system
Reduction of total constants
Correcting disparities
Fundamental reform of the electoral district system
Exercising the uniqueness of the House of Councilors
Reform of the current proportional representation system
Reducing the total number of constants and correcting the imbalance in the allocation of constants
Enhancing deliberations and easy-to-understand parliamentary management
Respect for majority rule
Achieving efficient parliamentary management
Determination to remove and eliminate the harmful effects of factions
Transition to a modern national party
Reflections of tribal members
Improving the number of winnings system and ensuring that rewards and punishments are mandatory
New rules for determining candidates
Establishment of decentralizationMay 23, 1989 Political Reform Outline
Has anything been achieved in this? Looking at the recent party ticket issue, it appears that it has largely faded away, but Prime Minister Kishida recently announced that he is considering disbanding the Kochi-kai. Mr. Nikai's Shijo-kai has announced that it will be disbanded, and the Seiwa-kai, which started it, will also be disbanded. Was it because of the faction itself? In short, it was probably a matter of not reporting political funds. Looking at public opinion to date, it appears that the majority opinion was that the existence of factions themselves was not a problem as a forum for policy discussion, and the prosecutor's investigation also focused on undocumented issues.
Prime Minister Kishida has said that he will create new party rules while dissolving factions, but first he will create check items from this political reform outline and evaluate each item in stages to see what has been achieved and to what extent. Why not consider it? Instead, they will consider "new rules."
The negative reason for the creation of factions is related to the structure of the parliamentary cabinet system. Personnel decisions within the party are all about internal party theory, and almost everything is shaped by interpersonal relationships. Your treatment will change depending on which trend you go with. Since the prime minister is the leader of the largest ruling party, the choice of leader is based on internal party theory and is determined by votes from party members based on their factions. On the other hand, if we adopt a dual representation system, no matter how many theories we create within the party, the top positions are decided by the people, so there is little point. It is said that in the United States, which has a presidential system, there are almost no cliques like there are in Japan.
It is said that one of the reasons why Japan has adopted a parliamentary cabinet system is to limit the authority of the top government. The reason is that they do not have much authority in the sense of reflecting on past wars after defeat. For this reason, Japanese politics takes a very long time to make decisions. In that sense, it can be said that the system is very vulnerable to emergencies. In a dual representation system, the people choose the top person, so the quality of their votes is different from that of other members of the Diet. Furthermore, the number of votes that would be obtained based on the assumption that all citizens would participate in the vote would be vastly different. Members of the Diet are simply elected in the regions in which they run for office. For this reason, the president is given greater authority than the prime minister, who is elected by members of the parliament. This authority also exerts great power in emergencies.
Will increased defense spending enable Japan to create innovations never seen before? - Amendment to Article 9 of the Constitution, revival of the military industry, and technological development.
Aims after constitutional amendment
Japan becomes a military power
The history of weapon development is a history of technological innovation
A world of innovation that cannot be imagined in everyday life
Japan should revise Article 9 of its constitution and revive its military industry. As I recall, Congressman Takaichi was the first member of the Diet to speak clearly about this issue. Amendments to Article 9 of the Constitution will expand Japan's military power and increase its defense capabilities, which will greatly reduce the risk of war. My personal opinion from the beginning has been that simply reducing the risk is a failure, and that technological innovation will be born by developing various military technologies in the name of military budgets.
If that happens, there will be countries and people who ridicule Japan's efforts to become a military power and try to get in the way, but it would be better to say clearly, ``Japan will become a military power.'' No engineer is aiming for second or third place in the technological development competition. When it comes to Japanese technology, it is normal to aim for the top in the world. Too many people think that if they developed a weapon, they would be murderers.
What exactly are the bronze tools used for thousands of years BC? It is a weapon and a vessel. What is iron? This is also used as a weapon, agricultural tool, and various decorations. These processing techniques were developed to defeat the enemy in war. Countries that acquired these processing techniques gained supremacy over their regions and acquired cultures such as bronzeware and iron-related crafts.
What exactly is an aircraft? Don't stop thinking just because the Wright Brothers achieved their dream of flying. The development of airplanes progressed with the investment of national funds for use in the war, making them faster, safer, lighter, and larger, and they were put into practical use during World War I. What exactly are passenger planes commonly used today? Grumman and Boeing are in the military industry.
Hitler was passionate about automobile development and invested a large amount of state funds. At that time, automobiles were the pinnacle of industrial technology, and were connected to the drive and performance of military vehicles and tanks. Winning in automobile races increased national prestige. Why are BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, and Volks still so strong?During this era, Germany won the technological competition.
What are nuclear weapons? A bomb that uses the enormous energy released during nuclear fission. So what is a nuclear power plant? The electricity for the PC I am currently using is also generated by nuclear power.
Is the country that developed the coronavirus vaccine a medical technology powerhouse? Completely different. These are countries that conduct military research into bacterial and viral weapons.
The technology to defeat the enemy in war is a technological innovation for survival that assumes the extraordinary, and has no taboos. Human history has proven that this is a field where innovations and paradigm shifts that cannot occur in everyday life can occur in the sense of achieving a goal using various methods. In other words, Japan should seriously aim to become a military power. This is because, at the same time, unimaginable technological innovations that can be used for peaceful purposes will be born.
World's First Anti-Racism Bill - Proposed by Japan, a Permanent Member of the League of Nations.
I wonder if Japan appears in world history around the time of the Sino-Japanese War. The world took note of the great accomplishments of the eastern island nation, and the West, which had considered China a great power, came to call China the ``sleeping lion.''
The next great achievement was the Russo-Japanese War. Heihachiro Togo, who won the Battle of the Sea of Japan, was featured on the front page of newspapers around the world, and is said to be the first Japanese person to be featured on the front page of a newspaper around the world. After that, Japan rose to the forefront of the world and became a permanent member of the League of Nations in 1919.
In 1919, Japan became the first country in the world to propose a bill to eliminate racial discrimination at the United Nations. Already during this period, Japan objected to the West's domination of Asia. Former Foreign Minister Nobuaki Makino criticized the racial discrimination caused by Western countries' colonies in various parts of Asia. (Nobuaki Makino: second from the left in the front row of the photo)
This is the world's first international organization to introduce a bill on the elimination of racial discrimination, with two representatives from France and two from Italy in favor, 11 from Greece, the Republic of China, Portugal, Czechoslovakia, the Kingdom of Serbs, the Kingdom of Croatia, Slovenes and Japan, and the United Kingdom against it. ・There were 5 people from the United States, Poland, Brazil, and Romania, so there was a majority in favor.
Many Japanese people think that the elimination of racial discrimination is a concept developed from the West, but in fact, it was Japan that first called for the elimination of racial discrimination.
At the time, Britain was abducting black people from Africa and trading them as slaves to the Americas. America used black slaves to grow cheap agricultural products and export them to countries around the world. The American representative argued that this was a no-go because it was not unanimous. Is there such a thing as a principle of unanimity among the 16 members?
Makino once objected, saying that the bill could be passed by majority vote, but the bill was rejected in accordance with the principle of unanimity in the United States, which was already a superpower at the time. This was nine years after the annexation of Japan and Korea and 22 years before the start of the Greater East Asia War.
South Korea continues to say that it was discriminated against and deprived of by Japan, but Japan was fighting in international organizations on a completely different scale. The annexation of Japan and South Korea and the annexation of Taiwan are assimilation policies that are completely different from Western-style colonies. Assimilation policy means that the Japanese, Koreans, and Taiwanese living there have equal rights and are subject to the rule of law.
The Greater East Asia War was a war between Japan and the white countries that ruled Asia, based on the idea that all Asian countries should maintain their independence and co-prosperity. The Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere concept was not something that suddenly appeared on a whim.
Korea claims that it suffered racial discrimination during the annexation of Japan and Korea, but it seems that they do not really understand what racial discrimination at that time meant.